Global Ammonia Market: Supply Volatility and the Rise of Green Ammonia in 2026

The global ammonia market has seen significant volatility through 2026. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted an estimated 20–30% of global ammonia trade flows earlier in the year, pushing up freight costs and tightening spot availability for buyers who rely on seaborne cargoes rather than long-term contracted supply.

At the same time, LNG supply cuts of roughly 40% in some producing regions raised feedstock costs for gas-based ammonia production, since natural gas remains the primary input for conventional (grey) ammonia synthesis. Producers with flexible feedstock arrangements or long-term gas contracts have been better insulated from these swings than those buying on the spot market.

Longer term, the market outlook remains strong: industry forecasts put the global ammonia market on track to grow from roughly $82.6 billion in 2025 to $102.7 billion by 2031, driven by agricultural fertilizer demand and increasing interest in low-carbon production routes.

Green ammonia is the fastest-growing segment. Valued at around $2.8 billion in 2026, the green ammonia market is projected to grow at a 20.7% CAGR to reach $18.3 billion by 2036, as producers invest in electrolysis-based, renewable-powered production to serve both fertilizer and emerging fuel/energy-storage applications.

For industrial buyers, the practical takeaway is the same one we tell our own customers: in a market this sensitive to feedstock and freight shocks, securing supply through a processor with flexible sourcing and consistent purity standards matters more than chasing the lowest spot price in any given week.